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The slump in Turkey's lira in the wake of the Turkish military advance into Syria has made it October's worst performing major currency, a move that looks even starker considering most emerging market currencies have powered ahead.

The lira is no stranger to volatility, but this month's 5% dive against the dollar stands out when compared to a 1.3% gain for MSCI's Emerging Markets Currency Index.

The broader emerging markets rally has been underpinned by signs of a partial trade deal between the United States and China and by stimulus, but Turkey-watchers have been rattled by threats of international sanctions over its actions in Syria.

The lira's previous plunges dragged Turkey's economy into recession last year as interest rates soared in response.

The economy is now recovering but remains in a fragile state and the lira's latest shakes show it clearly remains vulnerable.

It slumped earlier this year after the dismissal of the central bank governor by President Tayyip Erdogan - a frequent meddler in monetary policy - and when Washington threatened sanctions for Turkey's purchases of Russian S-400 missile defences.

US President Donald Trump warned on Sunday that "big sanctions on Turkey are coming" having already threatened to "obliterate" its NATO ally's economy if Ankara's attack on the Kurdish-led forces in northeastern Syria went too far.

European Union governments also agreed on Monday to limit arms exports to Turkey, although they stopped short of a formal EU embargo on the country which has helped stem the tide of refugees from Syria and other nearby countries.

"I'm struggling to see a positive trigger event (on Turkey) at the moment," said Allianz Global Investors emerging markets CIO Richard House. "It is just quite staggering what is going on."

Investment banks have also turned against the lira again.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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