The March and its fallout

Maulana Fazlur Rehman's 'Azadi' (Freedom) March is off and running. Starting from Sohrab Goth in Karachi, the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl's (JUI-F's) rally set off for upcountry on October 27, 2019 as scheduled. Other opposition parties, including the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Awami National Party (ANP), National Party (NP) and others saw off the march from the Sohrab Goth rally. The JUI-F march from Quetta also set off the same day, supported by the opposition Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), NP and others. While the first contingent from Karachi will traverse the eastern route via Hyderabad and Sukkur, the second one will travel along the western route via Sibi and D G Khan. According to last reports, Maulana Fazlur Rehman's contingent has reached Sukkur, having conducted rallies addressed by the Maulana in Hyderabad and Sukkur.

There was much speculation in recent days about the intent of the marchers and the government. When sufficient mud-slinging by both sides accusing each other of the worst intentions had been exhausted, the two sides met in Islamabad and agreed (according to the official account) that the march and possible dharna (sit-in) would be peaceful, within the law and the Supreme Court's judgements on such activity in the capital. In return, the government committed not to block the march. Both sides also agreed that the venue of the rally should be an open ground in the H-9 sector of Islamabad, adjacent to Peshawar Mor, as opposed to the JUI-F's desire to hold its rally in D-Chowk. The Peshawar Mor venue implied the JUI-F had agreed not to enter the 'forbidden' Red Zone. It had also, according again to the government's lead negotiator, Defence Minister Parvez Khattak, agreed not to demand the resignation of Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan and fresh elections, the two main planks of the JUI-F's drive.

However, two developments vitiated the atmosphere just one day after the agreement was finalised, with not even the ink dry on it. First and foremost, a prominent leader of the JUI-F, Mufti Kifayatullah, was arrested under the Maintenance of Public Order Ordinance (basically a law inherited from the military dictatorial past that sanctifies preventive detention) for 'incitement' to attend the march and collection of donations for it. After arresting him from his residence in Islamabad, he was shifted, after some delay, to Mansehra, whose Deputy Commissioner had ordered the arrest. The government exposed its true status by denying any knowledge of the matter. It boggles the mind how the mobilisation all over the country by the JUI-F for the march is kosher, particularly in the light of the JUI-F-government agreement just one day before, but Mufti Kifayatullah's calls fall in the category of 'incitement'! Clearly, keeping in mind the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government's denial of knowledge let alone responsibility, whoever (no marks for guessing right) is responsible for this step has acted out of malign intentions. If this is indeed the case, they have succeeded in souring the atmosphere once again. One consequence of this blunder is that the Maulana and the JUI-F in their public statements and march rally speeches have reverted to the demands for PM Imran Khan's resignation and fresh elections.

As if this absurdity were not enough, the government took the unprecedented step of 'cancelling' the Pakistani citizenship of another JUI-F leader, Hafiz Hamdullah, and the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) ordered all TV channels to stop inviting him on their talk shows. Again, it boggles the mind that the authorities have 'suddenly' discovered that Hafiz Hamdullah is an alien barred from our TV channels. In the first place, the timing of the 'cancellation' suspiciously seems a ploy to stifle his bold criticism of the military establishment and its defenders in the shape of the ubiquitous retired military officers on TV, an enterprise at which he has proved more than adept. Second, even if the spurious plea of his being an alien is accepted (although he has appealed against it), is there any law or rule that forbids an 'alien' from appearing on our TV channels? Maulana Fazlur Rehman responded to this bit of stupidity by reminding the starting rally in Karachi that foreign nationals such as Moeen Qureshi and Shaukat Aziz had been 'imported' and ruled the country while Pashtun Hafiz Hamdullah, whose tribe straddles the Balochistan-Afghanistan border, has been relegated to the status of an 'Afghan'.

As usual, the PTI government appears a rudderless and uncoordinated outfit, horizontally as well as vertically. Contradictory utterings are the norm. At the federal level, ministers go off half-cocked in a manner that damages the image and credibility of the government (a case in point being Fawad Chaudhry's revelation that the government not only could not provide jobs, despite its 10,000,000 jobs commitment in its election campaign, but was shutting down 400 government departments). The federal tone and tenor is in turn not matched by the provincial PTI governments (especially Punjab). Whether this is sheer incompetence or some too-clever-by-half carrot and stick strategy is not clear, but the end result is the same: incremental polarisation and the washing away of all the conciliatory efforts and noises of Parvez Khattak et al.

It is not clear at this point whether the chosen venue will disrupt life in the capital. The JUI-F is estimated to be able to truck in 100,000 workers from across the country to Islamabad. If we count the other opposition parties' participation (however uncertain still), that translates into a huge crowd. If the dharna is prolonged, all bets are off. The government has mobilised police forces from all over Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and ordered the Rangers and military to remain on standby in case of need. It goes without saying that the purposes of the JUI-F and the rest of the opposition would be better served by a peaceful rally and dharna. However, if some bright spark in the PTI government or its 'handlers' gets it into his head to stop the marchers by force, things could easily and quickly spiral out of control. The greatest damage in such a scenario would be done to the incumbents. Let us hope in their wisdom they recognise this truth and refrain from heavy-handed measures against the protestors. The latter too, in their own interest, should occupy the moral high ground by remaining peaceful and within the law, as they have repeatedly vowed to do in their public statements in recent days.

Fingers crossed.

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