Afghanistan is headed towards a chaotic civil war in the absence of a Plan-B, as efforts to achieve a comprehensive and negotiated peace agreement will not be successful for the foreseeable future of the war-torn country, warned Dr Marvin G Weinbaum, Director Afghanistan and Pakistan Programme at the Middle East Institute, Washington.
Speaking at a public talk titled 'How Pakistan and the US can provide a Plan-B for Afghanistan', here at Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI), Dr Weinbaum said, "We have tried a political solution for Afghanistan for the past 10 years based on the premise that there is not a military solution, at least one that the international community can guarantee."
He said that Plan-B is based on a compromised agreement with the Taliban that features above all, power sharing in which the Taliban in one form or another would be invited to share the power.
In order to reach this agreement, he asserted that it was necessary to have extended negotiations where until last year the problem was mainly to make the conflicting parties sit down.
Once this is achieved, he added, the Taliban have come to the conclusion; a diplomatic outcome is also possible and it would be in their interest. He pointed out that the Taliban have the understanding the US was very much dedicated to leave Afghanistan and that the objective to make all forces leave the country was a possibility.
He said that they watched as the Afghan political system started to come apart, and they now see that the idea that they could realize their objective, both politically and diplomatically while still maintaining as a requisite military campaign, is also possible. According to him, the Taliban have always wanted peace, but on their terms.
Referring to the nine rounds of negotiations between the US and the Taliban, he said these had nothing to do with peace in Afghanistan since there was no truce and no concessions that would end the conflict.
He further stated that the idea that there has to be a diplomatic solution came about after it emerged that if this conflict goes on, regardless of reaching a side deal between the US and Taliban, the danger of destabilization is very real.
Dr Weinbaum also said what particular about the conflict in the 1990s was the unity of command on both sides, which renders the applicability of that scenario to the present situation useless, since neither side has that cohesion. "What we have today is an extensional conflict. It is the clashing of irreconcilable values", he said, adding, "Plan-B necessitates looking at a realistic picture and it is a re-dedication to the Afghan state and to the strengthening of the state we have lost sight of by thinking there is a shortcut out of this conflict."
He cautioned, "It must be kept in mind that a chaotic civil war will have an external element in the form of neighbouring countries and a radical regime in Afghanistan will energize radical elements in Pakistan." he cautioned, adding that a major incentive for Pakistan is that Afghanistan-India relations depend upon Afghanistan needing a counter-weight to Pakistan. He said that Afghanistan's reliance on India declines if its own security rises.
Director General ISSI Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry (retd) said that a critical first step towards the peace settlement is a credible intra-Afghan dialogue amongst all political and warring factions in Afghanistan, especially between the two principal stakeholders - the Afghan government and Taliban.
He said that it is imperative that both parties deliberate on all aspects of the peace settlement as to how to ensure a credible and sustained ceasefire, a responsible and measured withdrawal of foreign forces, a participatory future political setup, and major and regional powers acting as guarantors of the peace.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2019
Comments
Comments are closed.