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Print Print 2019-12-17

Trade-sensitive units below four-month highs in Europe

Trade-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and Chinese yuan held below four-month highs on Monday as relief following a US-China trade agreement gave way to caution due to lack of details.
Published 17 Dec, 2019 12:00am

Trade-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and Chinese yuan held below four-month highs on Monday as relief following a US-China trade agreement gave way to caution due to lack of details.

Sterling remained bolstered by last week's resounding election win for British Prime Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, while Norway's crown rose to its highest in almost three months ahead of this week's Norwegian central bank meeting.

Washington and Beijing cooled their trade war last week, reducing some US tariffs in exchange for what US officials said would be a big jump in Chinese purchases of American farm products and other goods.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday the deal would nearly double US exports to China over the next two years and was "totally done". A date for senior US and Chinese officials to formally sign the agreement was still being determined, he added.

Caution over the future path of trade talks pushed the trade sensitive Chinese yuan and Australian dollar off last week's four-month peaks. "While there is significant relief over the trade deal, a lot of that would have been in the price already, so now there is a chance that trade relations could be strained again and we know a second phase of the trade agreement will be difficult," said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank.

The Australian dollar fetched $0.6874, easing from Friday's four-month high of $0.6939. The New Zealand dollar was dropped 0.3% at $0.6611 after climbing to a four-month high at $0.6636 on Friday. The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.3% to its highest level in almost six weeks at $1.3127.

The offshore Chinese currency was little changed around 7.00 yuan per dollar but below four-month highs around 6.92 hit last week. It found support from slightly stronger-than-expected Chinese production and consumption data.

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1142, but also off last week's peaks. It showed little immediate reaction to data showing euro zone business growth remained weak in December. The dollar was a tad firmer at 109.43 yen although its index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, was slightly lower on the day at 97.02.

Speculators' net long US dollar positioning fell in the latest week, according to calculations by Reuters and US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. "On the back of the trade deal, the main thing is a recovery in risk appetite, which means a softer dollar going forward and a firmer euro," said Fritz Louw, a currency strategist at MUFG.

"But at some point markets will start to price in that there is no clear plan for phase 2 (of the trade deal)." Elsewhere, sterling rose as much as 0.7% on expectations that last week's election win for Britain's ruling Conservative Party will end near-term Brexit uncertainty.

The British pound was last trading at $1.3358, 0.3% firmer on the day. Norway's crown rallied 0.6% to 8.988 per dollar ahead of this week's Norwegian central Bank meeting. Analysts at ING said they expected the Norges Bank to have a "modest hawkish bias" at Thursday's meeting.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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