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It is indeed a matter of deep concern for the common man in particular that State Bank of Pakistan fears a further rise in food inflation. In this regard I would like to express deep appreciation for a noted economist who in his yesterday's op-ed for this newspaper articulated a profound argument about how CPI inflation is going to play out in the remaining period of financial year 2019-20.

According to Dr Hafeez A. Pasha, for example, "The scenario for 2020 will hinge crucially on the movement of the exchange rate. If the containment in the current account persists then the currency is likely to remain stable. This will imply a slowdown in the rate of inflation. The rate of increase in the CPI could become single-digit once again by June 2020 and gradually decline thereafter. However, recent escalations in gas and electricity tariffs will imply more cost push inflation in coming weeks. Further, the rise in tensions between the US and Iran could cause a spike in oil prices".

The concerned authorities, in my view, are required to take all possible steps aimed at containing inflation and ensuring price stability.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020

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