Uncertain

At the end of the day, despite all our technological advances, we sure live in a messed up, uncertain world. Considering what happened yesterday (in the context of when the article is written and not when it is published), following which everyone is hoping against hope that the repercussions are not fatal, most of us probably want to shoot the idiot who invented the drone. In my case, however, that chap is a bit lower on the list: the guys who invented the email and the smart phone top the list for me.

And if things unfortunately (though one hopes not) have gone south by the time this piece is published, then one is painfully aware that interest in all things economic, including this column, will be minimal.

Whilst it is rather depressing for a writer when his writings don't get likes (using modern day terminology), things could still be worse; one could have been in the business of making predictions.

As of now, oil prices just went up, and since oil prices are pretty much unpredictable even in normal times; where they end up in the next few days, to put it politely, is uncertain. This is a rather unconducive situation for Pakistan: not only is there a risk of a higher trade deficit, but we will shortly find out whether or not the doomsday brigade was right about "Hot money". Economic managers domestically, regionally, and even globally must surely be having sleepless nights. Suddenly, not getting likes does not seem like such a bad thing!

Then there are the conspiracy theories. A couple of weeks ago, Reuters reported, "Iran, Malaysia, Turkey and Qatar are considering trading among themselves in gold and through a barter system as a hedge against any future economic sanctions on them, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Muhammad said on Saturday". Now, that does sound familiar; many have attempted that before, and, suddenly, if you subscribe to that particular conspiracy theory there is clarity.

But even with so much going on in the world, and whether the column gets likes or no likes, the show must go on.

Disruptions caused by technology advancements (beyond drones and smart phones) are going to make the world more and more uncertain; and those living in the developing parts of the world, lacking education, are likely to suffer more.

A recent story in the Economist about salads and herbs being grown in the world's largest vertical farm for the Dubai Expo 2020 caught the eye; as reported, with vertical farming you can grow plants indoors, with 99% less water using non-soil substrates (whatever that is) in stacked trays (whatever those are) using artificial light and nutrients. The fact that food crops can be grown without soil, sun and water (almost) should be very worrying for economies which are largely dependent on agriculture for their survival. If they can grow salad in commercial quantities in vertical farms today, how long before technology can grow cotton in bedrooms?

One is reminded about Richard Davies book, "Extreme Economies" and the chapter on Tallinn, capital of Estonia, and the remarkable Lepp and his invention which looks like a "massive pack of Paracetamol". Apparently, the basil grown in this "Smart Garden" is better than plants bought from a shop or grown in a herb garden outside. And he is in the process of commercializing his invention; and if it can now grow basil, it can probably soon grow tomatoes and onions.

For those who are interested, Extreme Economies is an interesting read. The book showcases economic life at a beach devastated by a tsunami, in refugee camps, a prison, and a jungle; the analysis on what worked in those places, and what did not, and why was intriguing. A more interesting study was the reasons for failure of Kinshasa and Glasgow and perhaps lessons can be drawn from such failures when struggling with economic policies; how quickly a flourishing economy can collapse was eye opening, and worrying. Also relevant to our topic today was the author's opinion that the future is a rocky path with income inequality and technology disruption being perhaps the most disruptive, and most baffling, challenges going forward.

Uncertain is the one word which perhaps best describes the World in 2020 and beyond.

And are we ready for this uncertain world? A country whose GDP is completely dependent on agriculture, directly and indirectly, and which at the same time is near the top of the list of the most water stressed nations in the world - hardly!

Undoubtedly, we have had more than our fair share of challenges which have played havoc with our economy, and, admittedly, our finance teams have been fighting fires rather than working on a long term plan for the economy, and perhaps there is a lot less space to maneuver when you are struggling with a debt trap - but the world is not going to wait for us.

We need to get our act together quickly, or our future will be painfully uncertain.

(The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad. Email: [email protected]. The views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of the newspaper)