I am not the Oracle of Delphi. Nor am I Mehwish Hayat who tweets on every subject. Perhaps if she were to show more skin, people might take note. The current developments have a background - historical, geo-strategic, economic and personal. Since time immemorial the three major players in the Middle East (M.E.) have been the Turks, Persians and Arabs. There has been rise and fall of various dynasties and empires. Foreign personalities like Lawrence of Arabia and Gertrude Lawrence have played minor roles. The current geography of M.E. was finalized by the Big Three: Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin, in the Tehran and Potsdam meetings. France also played a role. The Big Three carved up the M.E. like a birthday cake - this piece for you, this for me.
In the current ferment it is important to take a 'behind the scenes' look to try and understand where it's going.
Saudi Arabia: The 'Wahabi' philosophy will continue to drive the religious establishment. The Crown Prince MBS is not all powerful. In fact, half of the House of Saud is looking forward to his departure particularly those that were house guests at the Ritz Carlton. His flagship project, The IPO of Saudi Aramco, is a non-starter with only 1.5% of the shares having been privatized. Two years ago, in this newspaper this writer had predicted that Saudi Aramco would not be allowed privatisation. And given reasons therefor. The real decision-maker in the GCC is the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Prince Mohammad bin Zayed. He is a Sandhurst graduate and enjoys a network unparalleled. He also owns large swathes of businesses in Dubai. The real extent of his holdings in Dubai is a state secret.
Iran: The assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani does not change anything. He was a par excellence military leader of the same caliber as General Giap of Vietnam. The funeral given to him was the largest so far in the 21st century. But the Al-Quds organization will soldier on. What bothers the US is that if Iran were to modernize its oil infrastructure, it will add 2 million barrels per day to the world output. This will depress prices below US$ 40 per barrel. The most to suffer will be the GCC countries who have factored their national budgets at US$ 80 per barrel. The other issue of even greater concern to the US is that the European countries along with others (Russia, China, etc) are working on an exchange mechanism to work around the US dollar sanctions. China is Iran's biggest customer of crude oil - it cannot stand by and see its supplies disrupted.
US: The United States is a major player in his high-stakes game. President Donald Trump has turned into a loose cannon. Even his close allies cannot comprehend his next move. He has not gathered a professional team to develop a long-term strategy - they keep deserting him. With his impeachment trial underway, he can do anything to divert attention - as did Bill Clinton during the Monica Lewinsky trial. The neocon team still has his ear - Dick Cheney. Donald Rumsfeld is an outright hawk as befits a Princeton man. Recently, Henry Kessinger said that Muslims would soon be burnt to ashes. Words of a dying man. The other problem in America is the Military-Industrial complex. The major defense contractors, like Lockheed Martin, Boeing a Raytheon have had 30 great years, starting with the first Iraq war. They do not want things to slow down. They are continuously developing new and lethal weapons which need real battlefield testing. Boeing is in serious trouble with the 737 Max fiasco. Boeing needs to build up its defence division to compensate. The X-35 stealth fighter costs US$ 90 million a unit. The buyers are not going to be Ethiopia or the Republic of Congo, but oil rich ME countries. Singapore just signed on to buy 12 X-35 planes. Singapore (7 million population) is one of the most fortified countries in the world.
China: A Middle East flare up will have a major impact on China. So far China's foreign policy has been circumspect. No overt interventions. Concentrating on trade and aid. But a flare up in the region will affect China's oil supply chain and one of its major markets. The 'One Belt One Road' will be hugely impacted. The events in Hong Kong in the last six months are not a normal reaction. They are being stage-managed to destroy its financial center status through which 80% of China's FDI flows. A former governor of Hong Kong is advising the rogue elements on strategy. Another diversion being created is the presidential elections in Taiwan. Results were announced on 12 Jan 2020. The Anti-Mainland candidate, Ms. Tsai Ing-Wen won. Foreign sources pumped approx. US$ 1 billion for her support.
Russia: In the 21st century Vladimir Putin has emerged as a strongman. Mikhail Gorbachev and Yeltsin left behind chaos and disintegration. NATO was waiting to carve up what was left of the then USSR. Enter Putin. Slowly, brick by brick he built up Russia. Today Russia is again a major player on the world scene. He has Europe by the short and curly - supplying 30% of Europe's energy needs. The gas pipeline through Turkey has already been commissioned. Nord Stream II will be operational soon. The Russian footprint is everywhere in the ME and North Africa - Syria, Iraq, Libya. Putin cooperates with Erdogan when it suits him. The five Central Asian republics have a 30% Russian origin population. A result of the demographic migration in the late 19th/early 20th century. Before the Second World War, the northern part of Iran was under considerable Russian influence. Old linkages still exist. Any war with Iran will draw a response from Russia - whether overt or covert. Russia is not a military dictatorship. It is a state run by the intelligence services. Putin's public approval hovers around 70%.
Israel: Israel is an insecure state. And armed to the teeth. A lethal combination. It is always on the lookout to exploit a situation for its gain. In the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Israel supplied military hardware to Iran and also coordinated Iran's attack on Iraq's Osirak Nuclear Reactor. Later, the Israel Defence Forces finished the job. Israel's influence with the West, particularly with the US, is overrated. Zionists do not control the financial or the media system in the West; they have considerable influence. Israel is looking for geography and recognition. The peace treaties signed with Egypt and Jordan have remained static. No trade, tourism or other benefits. In the 1990s, protracted negotiations were held between Israel and Pakistan through an intermediary. Israel immediately expressed willingness to open a serious dialogue. After 3 years of contact, Israel made a very generous offer to Pakistan covering defense technology, Hi-tech, financial accommodation, media support, political accommodation etc. National Security issues do not allow me to elaborate further. In the event of an ME flare-up, Israel will be on 'red alert'. It will wait and watch. If the superpower, the US, can finish the job, Israel would be only too happy. They will not pass up any opportunity to occupy more land. They will also continue to provide intel and hardware to any group they think advantageous. Direct military intervention will only come if Israel is attacked or the US needs proxy support. Israel is sitting pretty - waiting to pick up the pieces.
Pakistan: In economic terms, Pakistan is not a prized asset. Its economy is smaller than Walmart's or Apple's. US$ 250 billion, shared amongst 210 million does not generate much excitement. It is the Pakistan's Armed Forces that gives it the clout to punch above its weight. In the major capitals of the world there has always been a realization that the road to power runs through Rawalpindi. In the past 30 years the international centers of power have watched askance as the various political parties played musical chairs and made mischief with the state coffers. On his first meeting with Nawaz Sharif, Donald Trump passed an aside remark: "This guy is like a magician, he pulls papers out of his pocket every time I ask a question." So much for Tariq Fatemi. The current situation is better. Imran Khan (IK) brings his own brand of leadership and gravitas. General Bajwa and IK make a formidable combination. This devolves down the line. In the current ME situation, Pakistan should take a slow, steady and sure approach. No jingoism or overreach. Shuttle diplomacy should be avoided. As of now, 20 countries are mounting shuttle diplomacy - including Shinzo Abe. Pakistan has a major role to play. If they wait, things may fall into their lap. IK needs to tone down his rhetoric about the unification of the Islamic Ummah. The GHQ and the Foreign Office need to use every ruse to exploit the situation in Pakistan's favor - smokescreen, diversions, deception etc. We must remember that only 45 years ago our honorable Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (ZAB) hosted the Islamic Leaders Conference in Lahore. After the last guest (I think it was Yasser Arafat) was seen off, certain power centers agreed that it was time to take out ZAB.
(The writer is the former Executive Director of the Management Association of Pakistan)
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