Battle of diplomacy

Soft power is the best repellant for war and conflict. As they say prevention is better than cure, similarly diplomacy is better than enmity. We are living in turbulent times where it is increasingly difficult to live peacefully and progressively. Nations are at war within and with each other. Each region has danger lurking around it. In the Middle East, Iran vs US mini-war has already created disturbance in the region and around the world. Afghanistan and Syria have been fighting for years. If Americans are going into war as a pre-election strategy, India is ready for war as a post-election strategy. These are still traditional hard power techniques that have historically given immediate short-term satisfaction but led to long-term destruction.

Diplomacy is based on dialogue and dialogue is the best way to increase connectivity and understanding. Understanding is the base of any relationship. Relationships are the test of diplomacy. The role of a diplomat is not just to improve the relationship between the two countries but to promote the brand of the country on all international forums that matter. Pakistan unfortunately has had issues in creating a wide array of power partnerships and therefore a brand that can bide us in tough times. With the exception of China and Turkey few other countries carry good messages about Pakistan or help it fight its international opponents. On the other hand much has been written on the Indian marketing muscle backed by some very aggressive diplomacy internationally to create its image of the rising, moderate and progressive country Vs extremist, backward and dangerous image of Pakistan.

After about two decades of the above labelling this may be about to change. India has been taken by surprise by Pakistan's success in winning over many heavyweights to talk and discuss Kashmir with the resultant pressure on India to review their policies on Kashmir. For Indian government and diplomats their tested tried formula of using their foreign missions to spread message about 'Pakistan-sponsored' terrorist attacks in Kashmir had sold so well and easy for so long that it took them a while to understand that they needed to adjust their strategies. For Pakistan, it was a window which they exploited to change the narrative. The narrative of India moving towards a non-secular, exclusionist society and Pakistan coming out of the terrorism era ready to embrace and facilitate peace and progress in the region and in the world.

The Indian diplomacy for two decades had been trained to show a glossy picture of the country. Dazzling images of a westernized India, together with a booming economy presented a very persuasive platform to their diplomats to launch a tirade against the 'terror exporting' Pakistan. With almost 20 years of tested and tried pitch they had all their templates ready post-Balakot to make the world condemn and threaten Pakistan to do more. Thus, when Pakistan started an aggressive campaign to expose their lies and also freed their pilot in a rare gesture, the Indian diplomacy just continued doing what they usually do, gather their forces in the White House and let America reprimand Pakistan. Pakistani Prime minister's visit to the US turned the tables. The fact that Pakistan refused to take financial aid and requested for better trade terms and offered facilitation in US/ Afghan peace dialogue took the Indian camp unprepared.

While Pakistan has made a concerted effort to highlight Kashmir at the UN and in international media, India has been struggling to hide the growing horror of Modi's clampdown on dissent in Universities and colleges. The Indian media has started criticizing the foreign diplomats as more and more influential politicians in US and Europe have failed to tow the Indian line and are demanding India review its policies. Some experts have highlighted that the most talked about event of Modi's address to American Indians "Howdy Modi" in September 2019, had only three out of the two dozen lawmakers from the Democratic Party who were traditionally supportive of India. Even those who did attend had now become critics of India. A resolution urging India to lift restrictions in Kashmir, was sponsored by Indian-American lawmaker Pramila Jayapal, with 29 co-sponsors, including two Republicans, and a lawmaker who had attended "Howdy Modi".

When things go wrong even good is turned into bad. While Pakistan media was busy criticizing Pakistan for not participating in the Kuala Lumpur Summit, Indian diplomats were ruing over how Pakistan will now have a bigger say in OIC. In an article "Saudi placates Pakistan. What about India?" by ex-Ambassador Bhadra Kumar, he says "In an extraordinary gesture, this event will be held in Islamabad in April. Wouldn't the Saudi leadership know that King Salman's decision would upset India? Nonetheless, the Saudis estimate that Pakistan's importance by far outweighs the dalliance with India. Without doubt, this development comes as a big setback to Indian diplomacy and the Modi government's Persian Gulf strategies."

The battle of diplomacy on global forums is on. Due to some persuasive lobbying especially with China, Pakistan successfully persuaded UN to call a Security Council meeting on Kashmir. This was the second one since August. Some may argue that these meetings are inconclusive, but the mere fact that at the highest level India is being put to question is a pressure on Indian diplomatic resources. As Suhasini Haider wrote in her article titled "The new worry of India's depleting diplomatic capital, that "At a time when the western world is in flux, the economy under stress and the rules-based order in recess, India's diplomatic capital is being depleted at a rate unseen in the last few decade". This is an admission of two things - firstly, that India for the first time has been put under pressure by the international community and secondly that its diplomacy is stuttering to keep up with this pressure.

This is an opportunity like never before for Pakistan to ensure that all next meetings of OIC and other forums keep India and Kashmir as top agenda. The foreign minister is going to visit the Middle East and the US and while the main agenda is de-escalation in the Iran/US conflict, Kashmir can also be mentioned as a danger that has already created unrest in India and can spillover the borders to make the region highly unstable. With United States already worried about Iran and the peace dialogue in Afghanistan, India would be under further scrutiny of the international media and politics. In the international arena psychological warfare is the real battle. As Sun Tzu says "The art of diplomacy is to subdue the enemy without fighting."

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