January 2020: Oil sales down 13 percent YoY

The oil consumption in January 2020 has declined by 13 percent on year-on-year basis. This drop in oil sales was largely driven by 40 percent lower furnace oil (FO) sales due to government's policy of moving away from FO-based power generation and 11 percent decline in high speed diesel (HSD) volumes amidst slow economic activity, particularly in the agriculture space, analysts said.

However, on a sequential basis, oil sales witnessed limited decline of 2 percent on month-on-month basis, supported by 88 percent higher FO offtake given government allowing partial resumption of FO-based power plants to support the local refineries and possible exports by Byco Petroleum (BYCO), an analyst at Topline Securities said.

HSD sales were down 13 percent on month-on-month basis in January 2020, while Motor Spirit (MS) volumes declined by 5 percent.

In the seven months of FY20, a similar trend was witnessed; where oil sales declined by 10 percent on year-on-year basis owing to 32 percent lower FO sales and 10 percent fall in HSD volumes, while MS sales remained 3 percent higher on year-on-year basis.

Looking at company-wise data, Pakistan State Oil's (PSO) sales declined by 16 percent on year-on-year basis and 10 percent on month-on-month basis in January 2020; however during the seven months of FY20 sales remain 6 percent higher on year-on-year basis.

Attock Petroleum's (APL) sales were down 13 percent on year-on-year and 9 percent on month-on-month basis in January 2020, while Hascol Petroleum's (HASCOL) volumes are up 17 percent on year-on-year basis and 17 percent on month-on-month basis.

PSO's market share is estimated to have shrunk by 39 percent in January 2020 compared to its seven month of FY20 average of 45 percent, whereas HASCOL's market share is likely to have clocked in at around 9 percent compared its seven month FY20 average of 6 percent, he added.