Australian, NZ dollars wait on coronavirus clarity

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were left adrift on Monday as investors awaited some clarity on whether the coronavirus was being contained or not, while a steady outlook for domestic interest rates offered some support.

The number of reported new cases in Hubei province rose on Monday after two days of falls, as authorities imposed drastic new restrictions on movement.

The Aussie was holding at $0.6717, having bounced 0.6% last week, though it remained uncomfortably close to the recent decade trough of $0.6657. Resistance is layered at $0.6750 and $0.6774, with support at $0.6707.

The kiwi dollar idled at $0.6433, after bouncing 0.5% last week and away from a three-month low at $0.6378. It has support at $0.6424 and resistance at $0.6487.

The kiwi's reprieve came after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised by dropping an easing bias and switching to a neutral stance, though it left the door ajar for a move should the fallout from the coronavirus prove more harmful than expected.

Investors reacted by paring the chance of an easing anytime soon with a move in March priced at less than 10%. A cut by June is put at 35%, with a shift by year end at 52%.

As a result yields on 10-year bonds have climbed to 1.395%, from a low of 1.245% touched early this month.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has also been pushing back against market pressure for stimulus, citing risks ever lower rates would inflate a new bubble in borrowing.

Futures imply a 34% probability of a quarter-point cut by May, with a move to 0.5% fully priced by October.

That could shift depending on what jobs figures for January show on Thursday, given the RBA has said it would reconsider an easing should unemployment trend markedly higher. The RBA's reluctance to ease has been a blow to bonds, sending three-year yields to 0.729% from an all-time low of 0.553% touched at the start of the month. The three-year bond future was off half a tick on Monday at 99.270, while the 10-year contract held steady at 98.9400.