Forint firms to 4-week high

The forint firmed to a new four-week high on Monday following a hawkish verbal intervention by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) last week and a change in the outlook on the country's debt to positive by rating agency Standard and Poor's.

The forint rose 0.33% to 334.80 versus the euro, in tandem with the Czech crown, which gained 0.35% to the euro, both currencies supported by recent hawkish messages from local monetary policy makers.

The Czech central bank unexpectedly hiked rates earlier this month, which boosted the crown. The currency has gained 2.6% to the euro this year.

Higher-than-expected inflation data and low GDP growth, published on Friday, further strengthened the crown according to analysts.

"With the inflation that high, the likelihood of the central bank cutting rates this year could be smaller," analysts at Erste's Ceska Sporitelna analysts said in a note.

Hungary's ultra-dovish central bank on Thursday pledged to deploy its full monetary arsenal to rein in higher-than-expected inflation. The NBH has kept its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.9% since 2016.

Stock markets gained, as nerves over the coronavirus have calmed to some extent following stimulus measure from China. Budapest led gains by rising 0.8%. The Polish stock market rose 0.2%.

The zloty, however, traded 0.1% lower to the euro after inflation rose faster than expected in January, according to data published on Friday.

"The HUF reacted positively with Vice Governor Nagy announcing that the central bank is ready to 'use all available tools to achieve the inflation target', including rates and liquidity management," Bank of America analysts said in a note.

"The central bank will focus on FX swaps tool until the March 24 decision, when forecasts are updated in the new Inflation Report."

The central bank will hold its weekly FX swap tender providing forint liquidity for commercial banks later on Monday which will be closely eyed by market players. The bank offered 320 million euros worth of swaps to banks. Results will be published after 1400 GMT.

S&P Global Ratings on Friday revised its outlook on Hungary to positive from stable on strong economic growth prospects and as macroeconomic imbalances remain contained. Fitch, however, affirmed Hungary's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at 'BBB', with a stable outlook.

Markets are reacting to the positive decision by S&P, dealers in Budapest said, adding that the NBH's comments last week were still the main factor boosting the forint.

Earlier this month, Polish central bank head Adam Glapinski reiterated his long-held view that the bank's main interest rate will most likely stay at a record low of 1.5% until the end of the current rate-setting panel's term in 2022.