War or peace in Syria?

Both Russia and Turkey have been jointly trying to contain fighting in the Idlib buffer zone and successfully ensuring that the Islamic State's fighters don't return to this Syrian province. But that didn't fit in the Syrian regime's scheme of things. Having retrieved rest of the provinces from adverse possession the regime was now set about retaking Idlib, triggering massive exodus on way to bordering Turkey. As the regime forces pressed to retake the province it also targeted last week a Turkish convoy and military posts that were there in position under the 2018 Turkey-Russia Sochi agreement, killing 33 Turkish soldiers. Turkey retaliated with full force, claiming to have shot down two Syrian jet fighters, putting out of action two airbases and "neutralized" - a term used to designate killed, wounded or captured - some two thousand Syrian troops. The fighting has risked drawing Russia and Turkey, who had cooperated for years to contain fighting, into a direct conflict. Russia has warned against airspace violations by Turkish aircraft over Syria. Given that presidents Erdogan and Putin would be talking to each other later this week, there is every hope that their joint commitment to 2018 agreement would be revived. "We have neither the intention nor the notion to face Russia," says Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar, adding: "Our only intention there is for the (Syrian) regime to end the massacre and thereby prevent ... radicalization and migration."

A large-scale migration from Idlib is the Ankara's prime human concern that warrants prompt notice by the international community, particularly the EU countries which are likely to be the ultimate destination of the migrants. The Syrian government forces have displaced one million people close to Turkey's southern border. Given that Turkey is already hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees the Turkish government is said to be determined to prevent further refugee influx from Syria. And those already in Turkey are now being allowed to cross over into EU countries. According to the International Organisation for Migration, till late Saturday, some 13,000 migrants have amassed at the Turkey-Greece border, including families and young children. Clashes erupted on Sunday along the border as the Greek police fired tear gas at migrants who in turn lobbed rocks at police. The question is: Will the NATO of which Turkey is a member and the European Union support Turkey as it faces Russian threats, or let Ankara settle peace terms with Moscow on its own? President Erdogan has made clear to Western governments that Turkey should not be burdened with another refugee crisis. He has spoken to many NATO government heads. But he will take final decision after his upcoming meeting with President Putin. The Russian president must either stand by its Sochi commitment, or let Turkey handle the Syrian regime on its own. On the face of it, if for the European Union preventing migrant influx is the only matter of concern and for the erstwhile anti-Assad regional powers the grim tragedy of Idlib out of sight then there is ever possibility of revival of Ankara-Moscow rapprochement spirit. And that done the Turkey would feel free to keep the doors open for migrants to reach greener pastures in Europe.