World on a pause

Rushed. Speed of light. Sprinting. Marathon. Racing ahead. These are some of the oft-repeated descriptors of today's business and life. Life was spinning past. Business is moving fervently. Products were churning out faster than they were being consumed and people were scrambling to keep pace with the 4the industrial revolution and the 5th G data zippers. In this mad blur of fast forward motion where airports were becoming bigger and busier and money and information changing hands in microseconds, coronavirus has shocked this frenetic movement into a grinding halt. From fast forward to slow motion what has happened in the last two weeks is almost unreal. From ordinary mortals to celebrity immortals like Tom Hanks all seem to be under its attack.

Seeing is believing. Landing at Heathrow airport one is ready for the overpowering hustle bustle and long queues at the immigration and baggage collection. Nothing in the world prepares you for the sprawling terminal 3 looking like a huge empty hall where workers are standing with literally nobody to guide and usher. What took you a long time is done in minutes and it is as if everybody is in a hurry to get you out with minimum contact and connect. That sight is telling of things that have happened and things to come. Travel all over the world has been the first business causality. Airports have become dangerously contagions, gatherings have become infectious and socializing a hazard. That literally means that the business of tourism, travelling, meeting and conferences has ceased to a trickle. Travel industry is one of the largest industries in the world, with $5.7 trillion in revenue. It is responsible for an estimated 319 million jobs, or roughly one in 10 people working on the world. It has crashed.

Politically, coronavirus is presenting dual challenges to governments. In the more developed world the virus has already affected economic progress. Growth figures have been dramatically reduced. From China whose growth is predicted to be hovering around 3% from its 7% highs to Europe that was already predicting 1% now to less than 1% and in many countries negative growth, this economic crunch is and will prove more painful than the financial meltdown of 2008. For the developing world the challenge is also how to cope with the management of this virus. Many countries are reporting low prevalence of this virus. However, the question being asked is that is it low because reporting and detection/diagnosis, etc., is not adequate or thorough? All these questions are alarm bells for countries around the world.

Already the estimates of cost of this virus to the world are changing daily. China may lose $2.7 trillion in lost output equivalent to the entire GDP of the UK but could be much worse. The previous two worldwide downturns - is the Great Depression and the 2008 financial meltdown were basically a demand management exercise for the political gurus who sat with their economic whiz kids and designed fiscal policy stimulants to reenergize the economies. The present recession is both demand and supply driven. China which is the hub of supplies for the world is almost at shutdown. Consider this - 85% of the toy industry in the US sources toys from China. Imagine the planned Spring and Easter sales with nothing new or nothing at all to sell. China is the world's biggest producer of manufactured components. Another example - When Chinese factories shut down, the widgets that go into everything from Apple's iPhones to construction machinery become harder to find.

With projections and forecasts being tossed out of the window every day, time for going back to fundamentals, as they never change. What is required is leadership in crisis. What has, and normally happens, in such crises is panic and chaos and most organisations and countries shift to managing the crisis rather than leading it. In the last crisis in 2008, many organisations crashed and the post-crisis literature was all about the leadership deficit. Managing a crisis is important but it keeps you in the situation and limited to fire-fighting. Even if you do damage control you are too damaged and unprepared to do opportunity control during and especially after the crisis. Leadership needs to rise to the occasion and not only cope with the disadvantages but turn the disadvantage to an advantage by:

1. Prepare for the good, the bad the ugly. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst is the clichéd principle. This needs to be worked on in much more detail. The uncertainty of coronavirus requires contingency plans for all risk probability assessment. Starting with the minimum risk to the maximum risk and creating percentage points along the way to describe the business and geo-political scenario is the task of the forecasters. Every forecast can be a winner or loser depending on the foresight of the leader. It is the leadership of the countries and companies to create opportunities out of adversities.

2. Change gears to support, service and contribution. While the world goes into isolation and the organisations start doing their favourite down time strategy of cutting down on jobs, services and connectivity, it is time to think and wherever possible do the opposite. China has already started offering its knowledge bank and health kits to other countries. Organisations must not let cost cutting cut their customer connections. They need to offer online services, information, health tips and home deliveries of essentials preferably free of cost to customers who stood by them in many tough times.

3. Build upon niches and deserted market spaces. This is the best time to think out of the box and innovation. Countries and companies too dependent on a few products, markets and strategies can now have the time and the freedom to try doing what they never did before and going where they never went before. G7 meeting this year has been forced to be held through video conference. Time for countries and service providers to innovate more and make future meetings less costly and more interactive no matter where you are.

The break-neck speed of life and business is on brakes. Where the biggest cry of today's citizen and worker is of having no time for self and family, perhaps this is the way to discover work life balance; perhaps this is the way for companies to think about how work can be done from home; perhaps this is the way for countries to think about how to save their people rather than plan to attack other countries; And perhaps this is the time to introspect and reflect over how meaningless life can become till we give it a meaning bigger than ourselves.

(The writer can be reached at [email protected])