Lock it down, now!

There is no other option but to partially lock down big cities. Period. It must be done in a phased and sustainable manner for several weeks. Unless the government acts immediately, law of probability indicates that the virus is going to hit most of us. Vaccination, even if developed soon, will take time to reach everyone.
That means partial lockdowns must be done now to blunt the curve. Initially, it may be done for 2-3 weeks. If the number of new cases declines as a result, the government may consider reopening essential businesses partially.
In the meantime, authorities can reevaluate the numbers and repeat the exercise as and when needed. Doing nothing - and living on chance of spread declining once temperature rises, will only aggravate the situation and compel a forced lockdown for a longer period.
Forget about fiscal deficit and other macros. Forget about economic cost of lockdown. Forget about politics and businesses incurring losses, forget about interest rates and stock market, it is time to put all hands on deck to fight against a common enemy. It is a question of survival. In Pakistan, the military is best equipped to take control of the situation. It should engage with different tiers of the government and private sector. That is the only way.
Stop running simulations, engaging consultants and experts to come up with a solution on paper. It's a war-like situation, and immediate actions are warranted. Do not get into giving out handouts or ration cards to people, which may give rise to an uglier form of corruption. Focus on basics. Everyone needs food and healthcare. Develop a mechanism to provide these to those who cannot afford.
In the first phase, major urban hubs must be locked down, beginning with 3-5 big cities. In rural areas, people do not work or operate in similar proximity as they do in urban bazaars and industries. Hence, chances of spread are lower. The problem is in urban centers and mainly in closed environment. For example, office space is dangerous. Air is recirculated and if one person is infected, rest of the team becomes vulnerable. This must stop, now.
Mass transport is another vulnerable area. Stop intra- and inter-city buses, trains, and air travel. In factories, where more workers work in proximity - such as garments - should be closed. At this stage, it will be unwise to prioritize exports over human life. Already, a lot of time has lapsed. In other industries which are business critical for continuation of life, ensure adherence to business continuity protocols. Banks, for example, must operate with limited availability to cater to critical supply chains. In this respect, the central bank is already promoting online and mobile channels by waiving off transaction fees.
Economic focus should be on healthcare and food supply chains. The government and state institutions must continue provision of utilities such as gas, water and electricity; the decision on collection of arrears can wait. Contingency planning in this respect can be done once authorities earn respite during lockdown.
Vendors related to wedding and even management - both in formal and informal segment - must chip in by offering their services along the lines of mass soup kitchens. Charities and trusts serving meals to the poor should be taken on board. The rich must also step up to pay for meals (daigs) for the daily wage earners unable to make a living during lockdown; authorities can help by taking it to scale.
Industries that are part of food supply - such as flour, rice, poultry, and edible oil - should continue to function. The government may give them under military supervision temporarily for efficient management.
There is consensus that the virus becomes inactive in food cooked at high temperatures. Food supply chain must be managed by authorities to minimize infection spread. Provisions should be made for lunch boxes twice a day in underprivileged areas. Joint efforts by different tiers of government, military, and private sector can help achieve these outcomes in a sustainable manner. Pharmacies, groceries, and utility stores may remain open under strict watch to ensure crowd control.
Public and private schools, expo centers, hotels and motels, wedding halls and other places for large gatherings must be converted into makeshift hospitals and quarantine centers. Worries of disinfection can be dealt with later. Import of ventilators, essential medicines, sanitizers, masks and other necessary equipment must be made on a war footing.
The decision makers must learn from the contrasting experiences of China and Italy. If the lockdown is delayed, death toll from infection spread may reach a point where law and order breaks down, and not much of an economy is left to worry about. The window to act is closing fast. The leadership must rise to the occasion before it's too late.