US natural gas futures jump to three-week high

US natural gas futures jumped for a third day in a row to a three-week high on Tuesday on a confirmation of forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand next week.

Traders noted that increase came despite lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and higher gas production.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 12.1 cents, or 7.0%, to settle at $1.852 per million British thermal units, their highest in three weeks. That put the front-month up about 21% over the past three days.

Just last week the contract fell to its lowest since August 1995. Even before the coronavirus started to cut global economic growth and energy demand, gas was already trading near its lowest in years as record production and months of mild winter weather enabled utilities to leave more fuel in storage, making shortages and price spikes unlikely.

Gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 are trading much higher than the front-month on expectations demand will jump in coming months as the economy snaps back after governments loosen travel and work restrictions once the spread of coronavirus slows. Calendar 2021 has traded at a premium over 2022 for 19 days and over 2025 for 9 days.

With cooler weather coming, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the US Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from an average of 93.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 99.8 bcfd next week. That compares with Refinitiv's forecasts on Monday of 94.0 bcfd this week and 100.3 bcfd next week.

The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants, meanwhile, slipped to a near three-week low of 7.8 bcfd on Monday from 8.2 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 8.9 bcfd last week due to reductions at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas.

Unlike the drop in energy use seen around the world so far, US gas use has not yet shown much of an impact from the coronavirus. Analysts, however, expect to see production and demand drop in the second quarter. Energy Aspects projected industrial consumption would drop in the second quarter by 2.1 bcfd from the same period last year due to factory closures and lower manufacturing capacity utilization.