Stimulating exports in lockdown conditions

The Sindh government must be appreciated for taking the most practical and timely steps among all provinces to contain the coronavirus. It was the first to register confirmed positive cases so naturally it had to be the first to take action. But it also realised the gravity of the situation before everybody else and enforced a more comprehensive lockdown, which extended to all public spaces including places of worship. And now that the question of slowly opening up vital sectors of the economy to meet export orders has arisen, Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah has again done the right thing by constituting a committee of technocrats to prepare Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for relevant factories to resume operations. The decision was reportedly taken during a weekend meeting to review an urgent request from industrialists to allow export-related units to reopen. The matter is "important and genuine," as the CM himself noted, because failure to act quickly would risk losing in-hand orders at a time when international trade has slumped and the outlook for export revenue in the immediate future is anything but certain.

Yet, it is also a very delicate issue because the government cannot simply throw all caution to the wind and go back to business as usual. Opening up factories, in however limited a number, requires getting extensive supply chains running as well, besides resuming public transport. That, of course, means thousands of people will interact every day, which militates against the main purpose of the lockdown. After all, not much can be done about production or exports if the virus spreads among the workers. But, on the other hand, there's only so long an effective lockdown can last if the economy crashes. That is precisely why it is very important to prepare SOPs and approach the matter in a calculated way. It is advised, while doing the necessary homework for this exercise, that the Sindh government also take the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) into the loop, since it is the key body to ensure effective coordination between federal and provincial governments in the fight against the coronavirus. That way a comprehensive and consistent roadmap can be developed for other provinces to follow as well when the need arises.

Going forward, the most important job of the government will be finding that delicate balance between jump-starting carefully selected parts of the industry and maintaining the purpose of the lockdown. Pakistan has neither the resources nor the infrastructure to deal with an out-of-control situation. Already Federal Minister Asad Umar, also the head of NCOC, has hinted at the health sector's inability to deal with rising cases, leaving containment as the only option. The committee set up by Murad Ali Shah for the SOPs, which includes health experts, labour and industries department secretaries and representatives from law enforcement agencies, is therefore required to do an immaculate job of risk management. That is why input and help from NCOC will be crucial.

Once opened, the factories will obviously necessitate movement of labour in large numbers, requiring resumption of public transport. It is recommended that only movement within cities be allowed at this point. Opening inter-city transport right now would completely dilute the lockdown. Similarly, all inter-province transport except necessary items should also remain suspended. The government will also have to make sure that whatever steps it outlines are effectively communicated to the public. This exercise will only work if people play their part as well and anybody who is not needed to be out for work stays indoors. There are already far too many examples of entire countries, with far better healthcare systems than Pakistan's, suffering because the common public just didn't take calls for quarantine seriously enough. So far, the outbreak has been relatively better contained in Pakistan than some other countries, especially in terms of number of deaths. But the next phase - allowing only enough people out to resume limited economic activity and making sure all others observe the lockdown - will be even more crucial. If it is not handled with the seriousness it demands, things could fall apart rather quickly. Quite understandably, then, all eyes will be on the CM's committee as it goes about preparing the SOPs.