US natural gas futures ease on milder weather

US natural gas futures eased on Monday as forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected offset data showing output was slowing.

Analysts also noted government travel and work restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus were reducing commercial and industrial demand as offices close and factories run at lower capacities.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.9 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $1.724 per million British thermal units.

Even before the coronavirus started to cut global economic growth and energy demand, gas was trading near its lowest in years as record production and months of mild winter weather enabled utilities to leave more fuel in storage, making shortages and price spikes unlikely.

During the first week of April, the front-month settled at its lowest since August 1995.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected the coronavirus would cut US gas consumption to 83.79 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 81.24 bcfd in 2021 from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019. That would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand falls for two consecutive years since 2006. Looking ahead, however, gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 were trading much higher than the front month on expectations demand will jump in coming months as the economy recovers once governments loosen travel and work restrictions after slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

Calendar 2021 has traded at a premium over 2022 for 25 days and over 2025 for 15 days.

With warmer, spring-like weather coming, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the US Lower 48 states, including exports, would slip to 94.3 bcfd next week from an average of 97.3 bcfd this week.

That is lower than Refinitiv's forecasts on Friday of 99.8 bcfd this week and 95.0 bcfd next week.

The amount of gas flowing to US liquefied natural gas export plants (LNG) export plants eased to 7.8 bcfd on Sunday from 8.1 bcfd on Saturday, according to Refinitiv.

That compares with an average of 8.0 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 9.5 bcfd on January 31.

Production in the Lower 48 states eased to 93.4 bcfd on Sunday from 93.6 bcfd on Saturday, according to Refinitiv.

That compares with 93.2 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 96.5 bcfd on November 30.