US natural gas futures fall on cooler weather

US natural gas futures fell over 4% on Tuesday as the market focused more on projections that steps to slow the coronavirus spread will cut future demand rather than short-term forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating use over the next two weeks.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.4 cents, or 4.3%, to settle at $1.650 per million British thermal units, their lowest close in over a week.

That puts the front-month down for a fourth day in a row for the first time since February. During that time, the contract has lost about 11%.

Even before the coronavirus started to cut global economic growth and energy demand, gas was trading near its lowest in years as record production and months of mild winter weather allowed utilities to leave more fuel in storage, making shortages and price spikes unlikely. During the first week of April, the front-month settled at its lowest since August 1995.

Looking ahead, however, gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 were trading much higher than the front month on expectations demand will jump in coming months as the economy recovers once governments loosen travel and work restrictions after slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

Along those lines, the premium of futures for June over May rose to its highest since 2008 when the contracts started trading, while calendar 2021 has traded over 2022 for 24 days and over 2025 for 14 days.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected the coronavirus would cut US gas consumption to 83.79 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 81.24 bcfd in 2021 from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019 as offices close and factories run at lower capacities. That would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand will have fallen for two consecutive years since 2006.

But with cooler weather coming in the short-term, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the US Lower 48 states, including exports, would reach 97.6 bcfd this week and 95.0 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's forecasts on Monday of 97.3 bcfd this week and 94.3 bcfd next week.

The amount of gas flowing to US liquefied natural gas export plants, meanwhile, rose to 8.7 bcfd on Monday from 7.8 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 8.0 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 9.5 bcfd on January 31.

US pipeline exports to Mexico fell to a 10-week low of 5.2 bcfd on Monday from 5.3 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 5.4 bcfd last week and an all-time high of 5.8 bcfd on October 17.