ILO's grim warning

The ILO's (International Labour Organisation's) warning that half of the world's workers are in danger of 'having their livelihoods destroyed' is hard to digest but not nearly as hard to understand given how fast the world is changing because of the coronavirus. With entire countries shut down - some only just beginning to slowly and cautiously open up - it was only a matter of time before things like earnings and employment became very serious issues indeed. And it is no surprise that ILO's empirical research also shows that workers at the bottom of the food chain are the most vulnerable. For them, especially daily wage earners, every day in lockdown means another day without work and therefore without pay and food as well. And there's only so long such an arrangement can last. It turns out that of the global workforce of approximately 3.3 billion people, more than two billion work in the informal economy where jobs are not protected by social safety nets, and more than 1.6 billion of them are in serious risk of being wiped out in the second quarter of 2020. "As the pandemic and job crisis evolve, the need to protect the most vulnerable becomes even more urgent," ILO director-general Guy Ryder rightly said. But in uncertain and unprecedented times like the present, even such straight forward things are easier said than done.

These are times when governments have to step in to protect people's lives and livelihoods. Countries with effective social safety nets are better prepared, of course, since they always keep enough reserves to meet emergencies, at least in the near to medium term. Indeed, the system has just kicked in and people are registering for unemployment benefits in most developed countries, so there is no immediate burden on workers or states as they assess the situation going forward. But countries like Pakistan, with no unemployment benefits or anything of the sort, both the people and the government face a very different kind of situation. Here the government collects money in the name of workers' benefits like social security and workers welfare fund, of course, but none of that is ever available when it is needed because the government spends it all; even though that money should be spent on the labour class. And since the country's informal sector is also the largest employer, and a big chunk of the population lives barely on either side of the poverty line, lockdowns can kill a lot more people through hunger and starvation than perhaps the coronavirus itself. According to a recent research report, the pandemic threatens to double Pakistan's poverty rate from 23.4 percent now to about 44.2 percent in the not-too-distant future.

It is precisely such concerns that are pushing more and more countries to take the risk of partially opening their economies. Lockdowns can't really be implemented for too long if economies break down. Some countries are no doubt more resilient than others but the need to stimulate industry, production and employment is eventually felt everywhere. Yet, unfortunately, it seems that some of these experiments aren't going quite as hoped. Germany, for example, which has among the most advanced healthcare systems in the world and was able to enforce social distancing better than most European countries, has had to take a step back immediately after relaxing its lockdown. Just as feared, the virus started spreading even faster as Berlin tried to get the economy running again. That, needless to say, is bad news for others trying the same strategy, especially countries like Pakistan with very poor healthcare infrastructures, small and indebted economies and very large populations that make it that much easier for the virus to spread exponentially.

ILO's concerns hit much harder when seen together with UN's recent warning of famines of "biblical proportions" caused by the coronavirus pandemic. As time passes and the world is no closer to a vaccine to cure Covid-19, the development of a global army of jobless, starving workers is becoming a very real possibility. Such circumstances - when desperate people resort to desperate measures to feed their families - provide the perfect ingredients for social unrest, a sharp rise in the crime rate and destabilisation on a scale not seen in a very long time. Since this is an international problem the response must also be truly global. World leaders must, therefore, join hands and devise a workable strategy now, before it is too late and uncertainty and unrest give way to widespread international disorder.