The great dilemma for all governments in the thick of the COVID-19 pandemic is how to balance lives versus livelihoods. This dilemma is particularly acute for countries such as Pakistan, where the absence of universal healthcare and a social security system poses unprecedented challenges on this score. It is no surprise therefore that the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government has from the day the pandemic struck, been portraying itself as committed to finding the right balance in this crisis.
Federal Planning and Development Minister Asad Umar, during a media briefing at the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) on May 3, 2020, quoted the figures and predictions of various organisations and think tanks regarding the economic fallout of the lockdowns (however leaky) on businesses, employment and poverty. He conceded that the tally of COVID-19 cases has more than doubled in less than two weeks, but 'balanced' that by citing the findings of these think tanks that the pandemic could cause the closure of one million businesses, rendering 18 million people unemployed and pushing 70 million people below the poverty line (to add to the 25 percent or about 55 million already there).
The minister was making the case for relaxing the lockdown, an issue he said would be decided in the meeting of the National Coordination Committee on May 9, 2020. This decision has to be weighed against the latest reports that reveal the confirmed COVID-19 cases have crossed the 20,000 mark countrywide, with 459 deaths so far. In two days, May 2-3, 2020, the virus claimed 55 lives. The graph of deaths has gone up from an initial average of two deaths per day to now nearly two dozen per day. And this is in only two months since the lockdown was imposed.
The minister found comfort in the fact that Pakistan's tally of confirmed cases and deaths has been relatively low, although he himself was unable to explain why this is so. He quoted the ratio of deaths per million population in Europe and the US to substantiate a claim that could be questioned on the touchstone of scientific or medical knowledge as well as the possibility of under-reporting because of our inadequate monitoring system. However, he also attempted to be too clever by half by quoting the higher figure of 4,800 deaths per month due to traffic accidents, which did not mean road traffic should be banned. The analogy is inapt because traffic accidents are not a contagious disease.
The real basis of Asad Umar's case was revealed when he said the collection of taxes by the Federal Bureau of Revenue (FBR) had gone down by Rs 119 billion in April 2020. As it is the FBR was struggling to meet its targets agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The pandemic has put paid to whatever hopes there may have been of catching up with those targets. Hence the argument that businesses needed to open, perhaps not all as that may lead to the already inadequate healthcare system collapsing under the weight of exponentially increasing cases of infection, but gradually, to strike an 'acceptable' balance between confirmed cases and economic activities.
Asad Umar went on to reveal some interesting statistics. He said Pakistan has 5,000 intensive care beds in its existing and newly set up hospitals, of which 1,500 would be used for COVID-19 patients and (or but) only 23 of them are being used. Now unless he has been misquoted, this makes for sorry reading, except that he also revealed that the country has 5,000 ventilators, of which 1,400 will be used for COVID-19 patients and currently 35 patients are on ventilators. One wonders if this sparse use of intensive care beds and ventilators was a factor in the death of a doctor in Karachi on May 4, 2020, reportedly because no ventilator was available for him despite taking the rounds of various hospitals in the city. The question arises, why this small number of beds and ventilators are being put to use when the number of confirmed cases is over 20,000, according to the minister, amongst whom must be a considerable number of serious cases needing isolation, hospitalisation and perhaps the aid of ventilators?
While all eyes are focused on the fight against the pandemic, a discernible uptick in terrorism in erstwhile FATA has been in evidence. The latest reports say a bomb was defused in Bajaur and the rail track blown up in Dera Ghazi Khan on May 3, 2020. This follows almost daily clashes with terrorists in the tribal area leading to soldiers' and terrorists' deaths in recent days. These developments may well be the thin edge of the wedge of a revival of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other terrorist groups 'exported' to Afghanistan as a result of military operations in the tribal areas.
A different kind of terrorism has been witnessed in the assassinations of Arif Wazir of the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM) in South Waziristan the other day, and the recovery of the dead body of missing journalist Sajid Hussain Baloch in Sweden. The latter had gone 'missing' on March 2, 2020. The finger of suspicion in both cases points to the continuing shenanigans of the deep state against dissident and critical opinion, even if such opinion belongs to a journalist or a peaceful PTM leader. Ironically, we have just commemorated World Press Freedom Day on May 3, 2020.
The scenario sketched out by Asad Umar is echoed in the declared intent of the body of Lahore's trading community to open their shops on May 10, 2020 perforce as they are in dire straits. Of course they say they will run education campaigns and ensure the Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) regarding social distancing, face masks, etc. But going by the experience of the lockdown so far, the public lacks the enlightened discipline required for this (witness the scenes in our bazaars despite so-called lockdowns) and the adversarial relationship between people and the police makes implementing such SOPs a tall order that may, if strictly attempted, lead to clashes and violence.
The real storm though, if Asad Umar's figures are correct, is the one likely to emerge as the 'balance' (skewed or otherwise) between lives and livelihoods plays out in the days ahead. It promises to be a long, hot summer.
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