The real worry for the government is how to increase gross domestic product (GDP) when there are so many tendencies towards its contraction, said Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh.
Speaking at a webinar organised by the ICAP, "Pakistan Economy Post-Covid-19: government perspective," he said that prior to the corona pandemic, we were expecting over three percent GDP growth but in the post-Covid-19 scenario, the GDP is projected at negative 1 percent to negative 1.5 for the outgoing fiscal year.
He said that next year the GDP would be around two percent.
The adviser said it was too early to say what would be the scenario after one year but the fiscal deficit, which would be nine percent for the current fiscal year would needed to be brought down next year, and the government would try to reduce the debt, which was another challenge.
Shaikh said that with the reduction in interest rate, the cost of debt would also decline.
He said that the agriculture sector, which was facing threat of locust, would be important for revival, and if overall global economy improved, the hit on exports would be lesser.
Shaikh said that taxes, a historical failure, would be corrected, and documentation and registration would continue.
He said that textile was very important for Pakistan and the present government to help the sector had provided subsidy on gas and electricity to support them and expedited their refunds.
The discussion with the IMF has been ongoing and they have been very supportive of incentive package and extraordinary incentive package to the construction industry.
We still have to follow a smart policy on expenditure, he said.
He said that the challenge for the government was to keep trying that lockdown took place in hotspots as there was no such thing as a full lockdown.
He said that lockdown had not only affected GDP growth but also had serious ramifications on the revenue, which was now expected to be around Rs3.9 trillion against the budgetary target of Rs5.5 trillion.
He said that contraction of global economy would hurt exports and remittances.
Shaikh said that it was hard to give specific numbers at this point in time because severity and duration of the pandemic is uncertain for the next few weeks.
He said that the government had taken various steps to protect the people from the pandemic, and disbursed Rs144 billion to the vulnerable, and allowed domestic consumer, deferred payment on utility bills for three months.
He said that sales tax refunds had been accelerated.
Shaikh said that Kamyab Jawan Programme has been launched and on banking sector principal amount was deferred.
The government has also decided to inject money in agriculture sector to increase the spending.
He said that the government was trying to strike a balance to protect the people and revival of businesses.
The adviser to the prime minister said termed decline in energy prices a positive development.
He said that in spite of being in the IMF programme, the government had been able to provide incentives to the construction sector and there is opportunity for the private sector to transform their businesses.
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