The provisional growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2019-20 has been estimated at -0.38 percent, which is based on growth estimates of the agricultural, industrial and services sectors at 2.67 percent, -2.64 percent and 0.59 percent, respectively.
A meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) to review the GDP was held under the chairmanship of secretary Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives on Monday.
The GDP at current market prices has also been computed and stands at Rs41,727 billion for 2019-20.
This shows a growth of 9.9 percent over Rs.37,972 billion for 2018-2019.
The per capita income for 2019-2020 has been calculated as Rs.214,539 for 2019-20 showing a growth of 8.3 percent over Rs198,028 during 2018-19.
The provisional estimates of the GDP and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) for the year 2019-2020 were presented on the basis of latest data of six-nine months, which were annualized by incorporating the impact of the Covid-19 for the final quarter.
The smart lockdown policy adopted by the government minimized the impact on economic growth compared to full lockdown situation.
The NAC discussed the various sectors, which is briefly given below.
Agricultural Sector: The agriculture sector grew by 2.67 percent.
The growth of important crops during this year is 2.90 percent.
This increase is due to increase in production of wheat, rice and maize at 2.45 percent, 2.89 percent and 6.01 percent, respectively.
However, cotton, and sugarcane crops have witnessed negative growth of 6.92 percent and 0.44 percent, respectively.
Other crops (onion, potato, vegetables etc) showed positive growth of 4.57 percent mainly because of increase in production of pulses, oil seeds, and vegetables.
Livestock sector: Livestock sector registered a growth of 2.58 percent, which is deviation from its historical growth primarily because of shrinkage in demand for dairy and poultry.
Forestry has grown at 2.29 percent due to increase in production of timber.
Industrial Sector: The overall industrial sector has witnessed a negative growth of 2.64 percent mainly because of COVID-19-related lockdown of industrial units.
The value added in the mining and quarrying sector has declined by 8.82 percent.
The large scale manufacturing (LSM) sector, which is driven primarily by QIM data (from July 2019 to March 2020), showed a decline of 7.78 percent.
Major decline has been observed in textile (-2.57 percent), food, beverage and tobacco (-2.33 percent), coke and petroleum products (-17.46 percent), pharmaceuticals (-5.38 percent), chemicals (-2.30 percent), automobiles (-36.5 percent), iron and steel products (-7.96 percent), electronics (-13.54 percent), engineering products (-7.05 percent), and wood products (-22.11 percent).
Fertilizer: The major positive growth in LSM has been observed in fertilizer (5.81 percent), leather products (4.96 percent), rubber products (4.31 percent), and paper and board (4.23 percent).
Electricity and Gas: Electricity and gas sub sector has grown by 17.70 percent mainly due to higher subsidies and better value added in Wapda and Companies.
Construction: The construction activity has increased by 8.06% mainly due to increase in general government expenditure.
Services: Globally the services sector has been impacted the most by the Covid-19-related shrinkage in service delivery in major sectors.
Pakistan's services sector has remained major growth driver for many years and it has witnessed a rare contraction of 0.59 percent in the provisional estimates.
While wholesale and retail trade sector contraction by 3.42 percent, the transport, storage and communication sector has a negative growth of 7.13 percent.
Finance and insurance sector shows a modest increase of 0.79 percent.
The remaining components of services i.e. housing, general government and other private services have witnessed a positive growth of 4.02 percent, 3.92 percent and 5.39 percent, respectively.
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