Covid-19's increasing trend may continue till monsoon, says Met

The Met Office on Thursday told that Pakistan has been divided into seven zones to find any relationship between Covid-19 and the weather conditions, saying that the pandemic's increasing trend is likely to continue until the onset of monsoon.

The results revealed a significant connection of Covid-19 cases with temperature and relative humidity, when weekly Covid-19 and met-data was analyzed. A significant connection found between the weekly Covid-19 transmission rate, basic reproductive number and met data of different climate zones of Pakistan, according to the Met.

The weekly analysis suggests that transmission rate will decline between 50 percent and 75 percent with an increase of 3 degrees Celsius to 5 degrees Celsius mean temperature and 10 percent to 15 percent of relative humidity.

"The results suggest that hot and humid climate reduces Covid-19 transmission over Pakistan. The mean temperature (30 degrees Celsius) and mean relative humidity above 55 percent slow downs the Covid-19 spread," it said.

The diurnal cycle of temperature and humidity indicates that evening and night time is most threatening for corona spread. Therefore, strict lockdown from 5 pm until mid-night is recommended during the summer months from May to June in Pakistan.

Similarly, cold and dry environment (temperature less than 26 degrees Celsius and relative humidity less than 40 percent) is favorable for virus transmission. Therefore, the limited use of air conditions is recommended during the summer months.

Results provide strong evidence that the mean temperature of 30 degrees Celsius and mean relative humidity of 50 percent have a significant impact on peak and propagation of Covid-19 new cases. The preliminary results are determined by using the best available techniques and scientific approach, for ZONE-1 that represents Punjab shown.

A significant connection observed with weekly mean temperature and relative humidity over growth rate as well as the basic reproductive number. Moreover, weather-based is calculated to determine the 4 projection of new cases of COVID-19 over various regions of Pakistan.

The epidemiological model (Mario et al., 2020) is based on set of mathematical differential equations used to reproduce observed data on the evolution of Covid-19 pandemic in different zones/regions of Pakistan. A key feature of the model is that it incorporates population density factor as well as rectifies itself by comparing with observed data and determines the future projection of new positive cases (Peak and decline) time.

The accuracy and simplicity of this model can be helpful to determine the extent and peak of the epidemic that may provide guidance in decision- making by the policymakers. The current increasing trend of Covid-19 will continue during the next 3-4 weeks (till the onset of Monsoon) in Pakistan. However, the TR is likely to become stable during pre-monsoon season (last week of June 2020) and the significant decline during monsoon season (Jul-Aug 2020) in Pakistan, if rains observed within the normal climatic trend.

The Met said Covid-19 Monitoring Cell comprising of highly qualified met-experts, established by Secretary Aviation is regularly monitoring and analyzing the trend with respect to real-time met-data of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and Covid-19 Data provided by SAPM Office.