Moscow's wheat export tax and a grain export quota, launched on Monday as part of efforts to reduce food inflation amid the coronavirus pandemic, have already been priced in, they said.
Sovecon, another Moscow consultancy, said wheat prices fell by $4 to $281, while barley was unchanged at $248.
Moscow is attempting to reduce wheat exports to help curb rising domestic food prices after President Vladimir Putin criticised food inflation amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The formula may be set at 70% of the difference between the price of wheat per tonne and $200, starting from June 1.
"Heavy snowfall in recent weeks is likely to boost moisture reserves, which were abnormally low after a dry autumn," Sovecon, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow.
Moscow is trying to curb domestic food inflation triggered by the COVID-19 crisis by introducing a range of grain export taxes.
Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply before mid-February was at $298 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week.
Russia's economy minister announced the plans on Friday, in another push to curb a rise in domestic food prices triggered by the COVID-19 crisis.
*"We are communicating with Ukraine to import wheat," said Mosammat Nazmanara Khanum.
Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply before mid-February was at $262 a tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the end of last week.
Sovecon downgraded its estimate for Russia's 2020/21 wheat exports in a separate note due to the wheat export tax which Russia plans from Feb. 15 to June 30.