Russia competes with the European Union (EU) for the rank of the world's largest wheat exporter. Egypt, Turkey and Bangladesh are the largest buyers of its wheat.
Russian exports will decline because of a smaller wheat crop, which Sovecon expects to reach 80.9 million tonnes, down from 85.9 million tonnes in 2020, it said in a note.
Brisk sales of EU wheat earlier in the July-June season, including large volumes of French wheat for China and German wheat for Algeria, had fuelled talk of tight stocks after a smaller harvest last summer.
Russia's decision to tax wheat exports from mid-February, to help cool local prices, was then expected to bring further demand for EU wheat, but prospects have instead dimmed.
Wheat futures choppy following weekend storms that brought beneficial moisture to dry areas of the US Plains winter wheat belt.
Russian wheat export prices fell for a second consecutive week last week after the Russian origin lost a major tender in Egypt and CBOT wheat prices fell, analysts said.
The feed wheat was purchased in two 65,000 tonne consignments at an estimated $282.86 a tonne c&f for arrival in South Korea around Aug. 24 and at $275.14 a tonne c&f for arrival in South Korea around Sept. 24.
If the August arrival consignment is sourced from the US Pacific Northwest coast, Australia or Canada, shipment is sought between July 21 and Aug. 9.
Prices were regarded as too high. Feed wheat offers were believed to be over $300 a tonne c&f after markets rose in past days after Russia announced plans for higher than expected wheat export taxes.
Moscow is trying to curb domestic food inflation triggered by the COVID-19 crisis by introducing a range of grain export taxes.
Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply before mid-February was at $298 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week.
"We are at the crucial time," said Mark Schultz, chief market analyst at Northstar Commodity. "They better start getting the moisture."
Chicago Board of Trade January soybean futures settled up 17-1/2 cents at $12.01-1/4 a bushel. CBOT March corn futures gained 5-1/4 cents to $4.32-1/2.
Wheat heads higher on technical buying and poor weather in Russia, Argentina and other wheat-producing countries that could tighten global exportable supplies.
Corn seen firm on technical buying and expectations of export demand from China. Fresh export sales may lend support.
Corn futures hit their highest level in 8-1/2 months, joining in the rally as the US harvest pace fell below expectations despite ideal weather for field work.
The dry conditions in South America could boost already-robust demand for US supplies as farmers in Brazil struggle to plant in the parched soils.
The USDA's Sept. 1 stocks figures for corn and soybeans also fell below expectations, lifting CBOT corn and soybean futures.
*The USDA lowered its estimate of US 2020 total wheat production to 1.826 billion bushels, from 1.838 billion previously.
CBOT September soft red winter wheat settled down 5 cents at $5.29-1/2 per bushel.
K.C. September hard red winter wheat ended down 7-1/4 cents at $4.41-1/4 a bushel while MGEX September spring wheat fell 4-3/4 cents to end at $5.10 per bushel.