EDITORIAL: Prime Minister Imran Khan and his cabinet repeatedly point to a rise in government expenditure for the poor as an indication of his focus on the plight of the poor and the downtrodden - expenditure that consists largely of Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) first launched by the Zardari-led government and increased each year to this day, as well as praiseworthy initiatives launched during the Khan administration, including panahgahs, koi bhooka na soye, women's centres, graduation and interest-free loans, Ehsaas amdan programme, rural transformation for poverty, policy to support marginalized groups, one window Ehsaas programme, etc. Ehsaas also interacts with the private sector to engage non-government stakeholders, which as per its website is currently under review.
These are all commendable programmes/initiatives; however, there is a need to compare the assistance envisaged for the PTI government's signature Ehsaas programme today with those budgeted by its predecessors. In the last 11 months of the PML-N government, 2017-18, total outlay on BISP was 113 billion rupees while the total budgeted outlay was 3763.9 billion rupees or a mere 3 percent of the total budget was allocated for the poor and vulnerable. In revised estimates of 2018-19's (the budget was presented by the Shahid Khaqan Abbasi government in May 2018 though the party was not in power during the entire fiscal year with caretakers from 1 June till August 2018 followed by the Khan administration) - total allocation for BISP was 118.6 billion rupees (against the budgeted 124.7 billion rupees) and total outlay was 5062.7 billion rupees giving a total 2.3 percent for BISP - a decline that may well be a reflection of the appalling state of the economy inherited by the new administration.
In the budget for 2021-22, the allocation for the Ehsaas programme is 246 billion rupees out of a total budgeted outlay of 8487 billion rupees - 2.89 percent of the total outlay - or 0.11 percent lower than the BISP allocation during the last year of the PML-N government. However, doubtless the PML-N government would argue that the amount it allocated in its last 11 months in power was more appropriate as the rate of inflation was 4.5 percent in 2017-18 and 6 percent in 2018-19 (as per budget documents for fiscal year 2018-19) while inflation since then as per World Bank data registered 10.7 percent in 2019, 9.74 percent in 2020 and 9 percent in 2021.
The government in its defence may cite the launch and provincial-wide dissemination of Sehat Sahulat Card (SSP) - complete in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with Punjab engaged in achieving 100 percent coverage. Again a great initiative however while one can understand the Prime Minister's desire to ensure all are covered under the SSP, a fact in European countries though not in the US, yet he would be well advised to consider the serious perennial funding issues facing the National Health Service in the UK as well as the amount of state funding required in European countries to provide universal health care (UHC). In Pakistan the State Life Insurance Corporation is providing insurance coverage for the scheme; however, as repeatedly pointed out by Business Recorder an actuarial analysis - considering different variables notably beneficiaries and care provided - was conducted in December 2018 by the German support provider GTZ and the International Labour Organization (ILO) which recommended that the SSP programme's extension be subject to another actuarial analysis to be conducted in two years to determine the coverage required as more and more people became aware of the SSP. That has sadly not yet been carried out while the Prime Minister is insisting on UHC in the three provinces where PTI is in power. One would recommend that till such a time as an actuarial analysis is carried out the programme maybe restricted to the poor and vulnerable.
Undoubtedly, the government is constrained by lack of funding; however, in this context it is relevant to note that current expenditure (partly attributable to the massive rise in interest payments particularly on domestic debt), rise in pensions (though the reforms have been identified and include ensuring employee contributions as in other countries), civil administration and defence have risen from 2018-19's total outlay on current expenditure from 5589 billion rupees to this year's budgeted total of 7523 billion rupees - a rise of 34.6 percent. If one adds the 118.6 billion rupees to the 2018-19 total as that was not a component of current expenditure in that year or subtracts the allocation for BISP of 246 billion rupees budgeted under current expenditure by the present government, the rise in current expenditure is still nearly 32 percent. This needs to change through major savings under all expenditure items which would require sacrifice by all recipients of the government expenditure.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021
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