NAPERVILLE, (Illinois): Chicago-traded corn futures have held up relatively well considering the flip to wetter weather in the US Corn Belt and the revelation that US farmers have planted much more corn than expected.
Those factors caused a historic 21% plunge in CBOT December corn in the final seven trading days of June, though price steadied immediately after. In the week ended July 11, corn climbed 1.6% in anticipation of a yield cut from the US Department of Agriculture.
But money managers in that week expanded their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 63,052 contracts from 18,209 in the prior week, against expectations for mild net buying. That move stemmed primarily from new gross shorts, and the resulting stance is funds’ most bearish since May 23.
USDA lowered US corn yield on July 12 due to dry June weather, but it would still be a new record. US and global corn balance sheets came in as expected, though December corn climbed 2.4% between Wednesday and Friday, ending the week at $5.13-3/4 per bushel.
Subsoil moisture is still of concern in the US Corn Belt and the crop remains vulnerable to forward weather, supporting prices. There has also been talk of logistical bottlenecks in the exporting of Brazil’s massive corn harvest, which could bump sluggish US export demand in the short term.
US soybean plantings came in far below market predictions on June 30, but money managers have been net sellers of CBOT soybean futures and options in the last two weeks. Through July 11, they reduced their net long to 82,748 contracts from 89,143 a week earlier.
That was on a 0.5% rise in November soybean futures for the week, and beans rose another 0.8% in the last three sessions. Friday’s finish of $13.70-3/4 per bushel was beans’ highest close since June 21. USDA’s latest projection of next year’s US soybean carryout was well above analyst ideas, but supplies could turn tight again if yield fails to reach the agency’s record forecast.
Speculators since December have been heavily bearish the CBOT oilshare, which measures soyoil’s share of value in the soy products, but their meal preference was nearly erased last week.
Money managers through July 11 increased their net long in CBOT soybean meal futures and options to 54,199 contracts from 52,821 a week earlier, but they added more than 7,600 soyoil contracts, raising their oil net long to 49,572 futures and options contracts.
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