MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices have stopped rising as weather conditions both globally and in Russia’s main grain-producing regions improve, and as demand falls.
Russia’s October exports are, however, still expected to reach a record high.
The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat, scheduled free-on-board (FOB) for delivery in November, was $232 per metric ton at the end of last week, a drop of $2, according to Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, who told Reuters that “the demand for wheat fell somewhat”.
The Sovecon consultancy reported that prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content were $235-$240 per ton, up from $234-$237 the previous week.
“We expect Russian FOB to remain flat or move somewhat lower,” the agency said.
Weekly grain exports are estimated at 1.02 million tons, down from 1.09 million tons the previous week, including 1.0 million tons of wheat, similar to the week before.
Sovecon raised its October export estimate by 0.2 million tons to a potential new record of 5.0 million tons, compared to 4.7 million tons a year ago, which is the current highest amount on record.
Analysts last week provided their first estimates for the 2025 wheat crop, which is currently expected to be in line with this year’s levels.
“Russian southern regions received much-needed rain this week, which, along with warm weather, could help wheat develop before winter,” Sovecon wrote in a note.
Over the next week, major winter wheat regions are forecast to receive more moisture and air temperatures will remain slightly above normal. The harvesting of the 2024 crop is nearing completion in Russia.
As of Oct. 18, Russian farmers had harvested 121.1 million tons of grain (compared to 136.2 million tons in 2023), including 83.1 million tons of wheat (down from 92.8 million tons last year). Winter grains were sown on 15.1 million hectares, compared to 16.0 million hectares in 2023.
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