Gold steadies after steep sell-off, but bound for weekly drop
Gold prices steadied on Friday after a sharp sell-off in the previous session, as traders digested rate-hike remarks from global central banks, but the metal was set for its first weekly drop in seven amid a strong dollar.
This wave is much shorter than the wave a. Such a relation indicates the formation of a bearish wedge. Resistance is at $1,800, a break above which could lead to a gain to $1,828
The consolidation over the past few days suggests the formation of a top around a resistance at $1,795. Unless the metal unexpectedly breaks above this level on Friday
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,776.78 per ounce by 0342 GMT, having earlier hit its highest since Aug. 6 at $1,782.40. US gold futures were flat at $1,778.50
China's tighter social restrictions to fight its latest COVID-19 outbreak, now in its fourth week and involving more than a dozen cities, are hitting the services sector especially travel and hospitality
Gold is viewed as a hedge against higher inflation, but a Fed rate hike would dull bullion's appeal as that would increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal
Indications in recent days of an improving labour market has raised fears of a sooner-than-expected US interest rate hike, sending gold prices to a four-month low on Monday
On the technical front, spot gold may revisit its Monday low of $1,684.37 per ounce, driven by a wave C, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao
A break below $1,806 could cause a fall to $1,784 while a break above $1,841 could confirm the continuation of the wave c towards the $1,869-$1,897 range
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,817.28 per ounce by 0503 GMT, after hitting a one-week low of $1,794.06 in the previous session. US gold futures gained 0.5% to $1,817.80
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.6% to 1,028.55 tonnes on Friday, the lowest since May 14
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.6% to 1,043.16 tonnes on Wednesday from 1,037.33 tonnes on Tuesday.
The failures indicate an extension of the correction from the June 1 high of $1,916.40. Three waves make up the correction. The third wave labelled c is unfolding.
"I expect gold to jump around in a choppy $1,860 to $1,900 range this week, with last week's high at $1,917 an ounce unlikely to be retested this week."
Fed officials, led by Chair Jerome Powell, have said repeatedly they expect price pressures to be transitory and monetary stimulus to stay in place for some time.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell to 1,041.75 tonnes on Wednesday from 1,045.83 tonnes on Tuesday.
Physical gold demand in second-biggest bullion consumer India was negligible last week with most jewellery stores still shut by COVID-19 lockdowns, forcing dealers to offer steep discounts.
Support is at $1,886, a break below which could cause a fall into $1,864-$1,877 range. On the daily chart, gold seems to be rising towards the peak of a wave B at $1,959.01, as it has broken a falling trendline and a key resistance at $1,874.
Signals will turn neutral if the metal breaks an immediate resistance at $1,884. Only a further gain above $1,893 could confirm the continuation of the uptrend towards $1,921.
Support is at $1,859, a break below which could cause a fall into the $1,830-$1,847 range. On the daily chart, the metal is struggling around a resistance at $1,874.
The metal has broken a lower resistance at $1,875. The break confirms an extension of the wave C from $1,755.81. Most likely, this wave could travel to $1,921.
"However, the pace of the gold rally appears to be outpacing fundamentals right now, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory.
"The scope for further declines (in gold prices) may be modest," HSBC analysts said in a note, adding that a decline in yields offers gold a chance to rally.
Spot gold may test a resistance at $1,847 per ounce, a break above which could lead to a gain to $1,876, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
Elsewhere, palladium rose 0.3% to $2,993.71 per ounce after hitting an all-time high of $3,017.18 in the previous session, driven by concerns of a shortage of the metal.
More than 153.02 million people have been reported to be infected by the novel coronavirus globally and 3,344,235? have died, according to a Reuters tally.
"Better economic data weighed on bonds, with yields subsequently rising and denting investor demand for the precious metal," ANZ analysts said in a note.
On the daily chart, following its failure to overcome a barrier at $1,799, the metal broke a support at $1,775. The break opened the way towards $1,723-$1,752 range.
More than 147.23 million people have been reported to be infected by the novel coronavirus globally and 3,249,168? have died, according to a Reuters tally.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,790.88 per ounce by 0543 GMT, after hitting its highest since Feb. 25 at $1,797.67. US gold futures eased 0.1% to $1,791.20 per ounce.
A gauge of stock prices across the world fell on Tuesday and oil prices also slipped as concern lingered over rising global COVID-19 cases and their effect on the global economic rebound.
More than 141.67 million people have been reported to be infected by the novel coronavirus globally and 3,163,124? have died, according to a Reuters tally.
A rise above $1,758.45 could confirm a double-bottom, which will suggest a target of $1,851. A break below $1,719 may cause a fall into the range of $1,677-$1,697.
The European Central Bank should spell out its tolerance for overshooting its inflation target, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Tuesday.
Asian stocks traded cautiously, taking a lead from the US markets, as investors waited for cues from the upcoming corporate earnings season and a key inflation report later this week.
Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish positions in COMEX gold and silver contracts in the week to April 6, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
The International Monetary Fund will raise its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 and 2022 after last year's 3.5% contraction, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Tuesday.
Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish positions in COMEX gold and cut them in silver contracts in the week to March 23, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
"Gold has support nearby at $1,720, and if the US dollar strengthens in Asia and Europe, it could test that level, prompting some stop-loss selling," said OANDA senior market analyst Jeffrey Halley.
The metal may retest a support at $1,716 per ounce, a break below could cause a fall into the range of $1,669 to $1,691, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
The European Central Bank may need some time before the recently agreed acceleration in the pace of money printing, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday.
A break could lead to a gain into a range of $1,761 to $1,783. On the daily chart, gold is riding on a wave 4, which is ending around a falling trendline.
The number of Americans filing new jobless claims fell to a four-month low last week, while the US market morale rose to its highest in a year in early March.
The European Central Bank is likely to signal faster money printing on Thursday to keep a lid on borrowing costs but it will stop short of adding firepower to its already aggressive pandemic-fighting package.
Fed officials, however, maintain that they will keep their easy money plans in place even in the face of a potential bout of inflation this spring in an economy boosted by vaccines and government spending.
Only a break above $1,761 could signal the completion of the wave C. On the daily chart, gold is still testing the support at $1,723, the 76.4% projection level of a downward wave C from $1,959.01.
US bank Wells Fargo said it has expanded its precious metals trading business, filling gaps in the market left by the withdrawal of Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank).
Resistance is at $1,783, a break above which could lead to a gain to $1,801. On the daily chart, gold is retesting a support at $1,769, the 61.8% projection level of a downward wave C from $1,959.01.
Silver eased 0.2% to $27.34 an ounce, but was poised for a third straight monthly rise, while palladium climbed 0.8% to $2,420.68 and was set to register its best month in a year with a more than 8% gain.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,808.15 per ounce by 0552 GMT, after hitting its highest since Feb. 16 at $1,815.63 on Tuesday. US gold futures gained 0.1% to $1,808.40.
Analysts also said that the recent technical event of gold's 50-day moving average price dipping below the 200-day moving average, known as death cross, could lead to more selling.
US retail sales rebounded sharply in January, while US producer prices increased by the most since 2009, suggesting inflation was starting to creep up.
Gold has started a consolidation, which may be confined in the range of $1,769-$1,805. The downtrend is expected to resume upon the completion of this consolidation.
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The non-farm payrolls data last week has bolstered bets the easy monetary policy is with us for a bit longer than expected, said DailyFX currency strategist Ilya Spivak.
A break below $1,827.93, however, will indicate a resumption of the downtrend towards $1,783. On the daily chart, gold could be consolidating within a big flat that developed from $1,764.29.
Breakevens on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, which measure average annual inflation expectations for the coming decade, have jumped to 2.19%, the highest level since mid-2018.
On the daily chart, gold has broken a support at $1,805, the 50% projection level of a downward wave C from $1,959.01. The metal may test the next support at $1,769.
"Silver prices are now finding an equilibrium that better reflects supply-demand fundamentals, with the WallStreetBets mania having simmered down," said FXTM market analyst Han Tan.
The buzz that started last Thursday saw silver dealers scramble to find supplies for retail buyers, and the amount of silver traded in the London market surged to 1.006 billion ounces on Monday.
Spot silver hit its highest since Aug. 11 at $28.98 an ounce earlier in the session, and was up 5.7% to $28.53 by 0242 GMT.
"This is Asia's response" to all the retail mania, Brian Lan, managing director at GoldSilver Central said, adding, a lot of investors want to take advantage of the situation and make some profits.
Silver dropped 0.6% to $26.21 an ounce, having gained 4.5% on Thursday after some traders moved to cover short positions on rumours about a GameStop-style squeeze driven by retail investors.
"We will see a sharp rise in investment demand. Amid low interest rates and higher stock prices, people are looking at gold to diversify their investments," he added.
Lending some support to gold were worries over a surge in global coronavirus cases, which surpassed 100 million, as countries struggle with vaccine shortfalls.
Gold prices inched higher on Friday as investors shrugged off concerns that stronger-than-expected consumer inflation in the United States could influence the US central bank's decision on aggressive monetary policy easing. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $1,412.8
Gold prices inched higher on Friday as investors shrugged off concerns that stronger-than-expected consumer inflation in the United States could influence the US central bank's decision on aggressive monetary policy easing. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,407.9
Physical gold discounts in India widened to their highest in almost three years this week as local prices surged to record peaks, while Asian hubs, barring China, saw aggressive selling from customers as global bullion rates scaled a 6-year peak. The pric
Gold prices surpassed $1,400 on Friday before retreating, still holding near a six-year high on the US central bank's dovish stance on monetary policy. Prices also found support from worries about a potential US military strike against Iran and a global t
Gold prices surpassed $1,400 on Friday before retreating, still holding near a six-year high on the US central bank's dovish stance on monetary policy. Prices also found support from worries about a potential US military strike against Iran and a global t
Gold prices dipped slightly on Tuesday as investors booked profits following robust gains over the past weeks, while rising hopes of a trade deal between China and the United States lifted equities. However, increasing expectations the US Federal Reserve